Few would have thought last New Year’s Day that one million migrants fleeing and economic chaos would stampede into western Europe or that terrorists would run amok twice in Paris, provoking unprecedented security measures and triggering new frictions in the often unhappy relationship between Christians in the European Union and the nearly 20 million Muslims who live among them.

Every year brings surprises that few predicted. Some are one-offs. Others, such as the refugee/migrant crisis, suggest a troubling new status quo.

One major development in 2015 that will have consequences for a long time to come was the revelation about how far Beijing’s mammoth island building project in the South China Sea has progressed.

Another was Vladimir Putin’s totally unexpected bombing campaign in support of Syria’s Bashar Al-Assad, which seriously undermines what is left of American hegemony in the Middle East.

A third was the emergence of the very real possibility that Britain could bolt from the European Union in a referendum for which Prime Minister David Cameron has not yet set a date. Brexit, as it is being called, is a 50-50 proposition. If Britain bids the EU adieu there will be grave consequences for the future of the entire European project.

Canada’s new government produced a small surprise, too, going in the opposite direction of is closest allies by declaring its intention to withdraw the RCAF’s modest number of fighter jets from the war against ISIL — although whether the Trudeau government actually dares to go through with this ill-advised pledge, which polls consistently show Canadians do not agree with, remains uncertain.

Whatever is decided about that, Canada is about to announce an increase in the number of special forces troops training Kurdish Peshmerga fighters in Iraq. If it is prepared to digest the high costs, it is also appears likely that Canada will launch a dangerous peacekeeping mission in Burundi, Sudan, West Africa or, believe it or not, in Libya, where Ottawa is quietly giving some consideration to joining the British in an Italian-led operation.

I was a witness to some of the world’s great distress last year as well as a few happy stories, such as the birth in London of Princess Charlotte.

My year began in Cuba. The Canadians I met in Varadero dreaded the arrival of American tourists. But Cubans could hardly wait to embrace their country’s longstanding enemies.

From what I saw of Carnivale and of preparations for the Olympics in August, Rio is certain to stage the most joyous Games since Sydney at the dawn of the millennium.

Before it dominated the news, I traced the path of asylum seekers from northern Africa to Spain and from the Greek isle of Lesbos to Sweden. Months later I returned to that grim story in Lebanon, Scandinavia and Germany before switching my focus to the effects on Europe’s psyche.

Although Greece’s economy has been in a precarious place for years, it has always muddled through because Europe applied Band-Aids. They did so again after several months of uncertainty that provided me with a chance to ramble around the archipelago imbibing the scenery and the history but constantly frustrated by chance encounters with Greeks who thought that Germany and the rest of the West owed them a generous living.

One of my favourite times in 2015 involved visiting with the Peshmerga along the frontlines against ISIL. If all the West’s allies in that region were like these fearless Kurdish warriors who were entrenched within eyesight of the extremists, the region and the world would be a safer place.

It was also riveting to spend an afternoon with Brig.-General Lise Bourgon, the RCAF commander in Kuwait who was the first Canadian woman to ever lead a combat mission. If I can make one fairly safe prediction about the future it would be that Bourgon will be named in five or six years as the first woman to command one of Canada’s three armed services.

I was also moved by the quiet dignity of so many of the Syrian refugees that I met in Lebanon and elsewhere. Despite having often endured unspeakable hardships these men, women and children were almost universally looking ahead to sunnier days, despite being enveloped in black clouds. Although it was modest, Canada’s contribution to easing the suffering of more than 6,000 of them was welcome.

Predictions about the world’s focus in 2016 are bootless because unanticipated dramas can and will arise, but the surest bets are:

1. As Russia’s economic woes deepen, Vladimir Putin will get up to more mischief in eastern Europe or the Middle East;

2. The Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant and those it inspires will continue to murder and maim whenever, however and whomever it can;

3. China will cause more anxiety for its neighbours by pressing its giant claim to the South China Sea;

4. Motivated by the success of so many refugee claimants who made it to Europe, millions more displaced and impoverished people will be on the move again during the coming year. But the welcome mat is already being rolled up in Europe, where border controls than undermine the EU are being rapidly established.