Eleven years after the 2002 attacks against Israeli targets in mombasa, and 15 years after the 1998 United States embassy bombings in Nairobi (and dar es Salaam), Kenya is once again suffering at the hands of an al-Qaeda-affiliated terrorist group. Al-Shabaab’s murderous rampage at the Westgate mall is just one more in a string of Islamist terrorist attacks that have targeted the region.
The mall, partially Israeli-owned, is a popular location where many Westerners and wealthy Kenyans do their shopping. Security was poor. And the mall presented the terrorists with an easy opportunity to trap and kill many victims because, unlike most African malls, it has only two entrances. This explains how al-Shabaab was able to keep the mall under siege for four days with only a small group of terrorists. In deciding who would be killed and who would be spared at the Westgate mall, al-Shabaab appears to have followed guidelines recently issued by al-Qaeda leader Ayman Al Zawahiri, who has instructed his terrorist followers to spare muslims while killing infidels.
Before Saturday’s attack, al-Shabaab — the Somali-based wing of al-Qaeda — was thought to have been weakened and close to extinction. but Western experts have made the same mistake with al-Qaeda itself, whose extinction also is often predicted. While it is true that al-Shabaab lost a lot of its stature in the region of late, and has been pushed out of much of the territory it once controlled in Somalia, it can still mount terrorist attacks. Since march, al-Shabaab has attacked a United Nations compound, and made an assassination attempt against Somali President Hassan Cheikh mohamoud.
Al-Shabaab’s desire to regionalize the conflict is rooted in an effort to punish Kenya for its military intervention in Somalia in late 2011. Indeed, Kenyan forces had dislodged al-Shabaab from Kismayo, their stronghold in Somalia, in September 2012. This had disastrous consequences for al-Shabaab as half of its earnings came from “taxes” collected from businesses based in the area.
Organizing the attack in Nairobi likely required extensive preparations. And alShabaab may have received logistic support from a terrorist group based in Kenya, Al Hijra. The presence of Westerners among the terrorists, notably Americans and a british woman, also reinforces al-Shabaab’s worrying ability to recruit in the Western world.
After the bombay attacks in 2008, which also involved a team of terrorists causing death and mayhem over a period of several days, it became clear that terrorist groups would be using this new modus operandi more often. Attacking poorly protected places with a high media value is clearly advantageous for groups such as al-Shabaab. moreover, having the world’s eyes turned to their actions for several days is preferable, from their point of view, to a classic terrorist attack such as a car bomb, which is over in an instant.
This attack will have a psychological effect on the Kenyan population, as the thought that terrorists can attack anywhere, anytime will destroy their sense of security. by targeting foreigners, the terrorists wanted to instill fear in the Kenya-based Western community, too. In so doing, al-Shabaab hopes to destabilize the Kenyan economy and dry out foreign investments.
A legitimate question now arises: When will europe or the United States be next for African-based terrorists? Kenya may seem a world away. but then again, Kenyans once thought the same thing about Somalia.
