OTTAWA — The Harper government’s surprise decision Friday to suspend diplomatic relations with Iran is being seen as a pre-emptive move in anticipation of tougher action against the Islamic Republic.

Exactly what that will entail is unclear, with analysts predicting everything from Canada listing the infamous Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps as a terrorist group to preparing for an Israeli military strike against Iran.

The unexpected decision has prompted mixed reactions at home and abroad, with Israel’s prime minister offering applause but former Canadian ambassadors warning Canada has lost a vital “window” into what’s happening inside the Islamic Republic.

Foreign Affairs Minister John Baird, in Russia attending an APEC summit with Prime Minister Stephen Harper, announced Friday that Canada was closing its embassy in Tehran, primarily over concerns for the safety of Canadian diplomats.

“Our diplomats serve Canada as civilians and their safety is my number one priority,” he told reporters. “They don’t sign up to be put in harm’s way.”

In addition, Baird said all Iranian diplomats in Canada had been ordered out of the country within the next five days.

The government also officially listed Iran as a terrorist state, meaning victims of terrorism can sue the Islamic Republic under Canadian law.

Baird did not specify what threats Canadian diplomats are facing, prompting rampant speculation among analysts.

“Like a lot of people, my first question is: Why now?” said Bruce Riedel, who served as a Middle East adviser to the last four U.S. presidents and is now a senior fellow at the Washington-based Brookings Institution.

“And is there more to the rationale for why now?”

The safety of foreign diplomats in Iran has been an issue going back to the 1979 Iranian revolution, in which more than 50 U.S. diplomats were held hostage for 444 days.

More recently, protesters stormed the British Embassy in November after the United Kingdom tightened sanctions against the country, including targeting its central bank.

The protesters destroyed property and holding seven staff members captive until they were eventually released.

John Mundy, Canada’s last ambassador-designate to Iran before being expelled in 2007, said that from his own experience, Iran does not respect diplomatic niceties.

“And if something has happened in the last few weeks that specifically put the Canadian Embassy and Canadian diplomats at risk, that might justify what we’ve done,” Mundy said.

But many analysts don’t believe the move is in response to a threat against Canadian envoys in Iran.

Rather, they feel it is a precautionary decision intended to safeguard against retaliation for some future action.

The Israeli government has increasingly warned that a military strike again Iran is imminent due to concerns about the Islamic Republic’s nuclear program, which many fear is being used to develop a nuclear arsenal.

Asked about that in Russia, Baird replied: “Unequivocally, we have no information about a military strike on Iran.”

But Ramin Jahanbegloo, an Iranian-Canadian professor at the University of Toronto, said that doesn’t mean it won’t happen — and the Harper government’s strong support for Israel would make Canadian diplomats a target if it does.

“Certainly if there is a strike, Ottawa will support the strike and it will put in danger the Canadian diplomats in Tehran,” he said. “I’m not saying there will be a strike, but everyone is talking about an eventual strike.”

The British Embassy in Iran remains closed and the U.S. hasn’t had a diplomatic mission there since 1979.

Jahanbegloo believes if other European countries begin to close their own embassies, that will be a sign Israel is preparing for a strike.

Others say the impending action won’t be an Israeli military strike, but a tightening of Canadian sanctions against the Islamic Republic — including listing its infamous Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps as a terrorist entity.

The Revolutionary Guard is an elite military force that has become increasingly involved in all facets of Iranian policy.

This includes repressing critics inside the country and supporting terrorism abroad in an attempt to boost Iranian power and influence.

Shimon Fogel, head of the Centre for Israel and Jewish Affairs, said his organization has been pushing for Canada to list the Revolutionary Guards as a terrorist entity for some time.

“The concern the Canadians had in that regard is a possible comeback or reprisals on diplomats posted there,” Fogel said.

“If I were to read anything into (the Canadian Embassy closing), I think it would be that Canada is preparing to take action against the IRGC. And in anticipation of that, they want all Canadian personnel out of the region so that they won’t suffer any reprisals.”

Whatever the reason, the severing of ties with Iran prompted mixed reaction.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu released a statement a few hours after Baird announced the embassy closure, congratulating the Harper government “for taking such a bold step and sending such a clear message to Iran and to the world.”

“This step should serve as an example of international responsibility and morality to the international community,” the Israeli leader added.

The Iranian government released its own statement via its official news service, quoting a foreign ministry spokesman who accused Canada of pandering to U.S., British and Israeli policy — and in the process punishing average Iranians.

Meanwhile, Mundy worried the move will hinder Canada’s ability to understand what is going on inside the Islamic Republic — at the worst possible time.

“We no longer have our own window into Iran,” Mundy said.

“And at a time when this country is a grave threat to international security, it’s important for us to know as much as we can about what is happening there.”

Canada and Iran have had an on-again, off-again relationship since the Iranian Revolution in 1979.

Relations took a hit in the aftermath of that event when Canadian diplomats helped six American envoys escape the country.

The relationship warmed again in the late 1980s and 1990s thanks to business ties between the two countries, but started worsening following the arrest and murder of Iranian-Canadian journalist Zahra Kazemi in 2003.

More recently, the Harper government has labelled Iran the world’s greatest threat to global security, blasting it for its support for terrorism, its human rights violations and its refusal to abide by UN resolutions pertaining to its nuclear program.

— with files from Matthew Fisher and Teresa Smith, Postmedia News