Egypt is going to be a test case. A declared Islamist has been elected president and any parliament in the foreseeable future is likely to have an Islamist majority. Not only is Egypt the most populated country in the Arab Middle East, it also has the largest number of Christians in the region and a sizeable secularised middle-class in the cities. What happens there will have implications for much of the Arab and Muslim worlds.

So will it be another Iran, with minorities and professional people leaving in significant numbers, or is there a way of being Islamist that prevents such an exodus?

We must be wary of cosmetic gestures and false accommodation. Mohammed Morsi’s promise of having a non-Islamist prime minister, with a Christian and a woman as vice-presidents, whilst welcome, says nothing about any Islamist system which may yet be put in place. It is good that he has had an early meeting with Christian leaders but it remains to be seen whether Muslims and Christians will continue to be regarded as equal citizens.

The key to answering some of these questions lies in the place Sharia is likely to have in a future Egypt. We should not be in any doubt that it will have a prominent role. Already, under the previous regime, and because of Islamist pressure, the constitution was changed from recognizing it as one of the sources of law to being the sole source of all law. It is difficult to imagine an Islamist government settling for anything less. The question is what will be the extent of implementing such an understanding of Sharia, how will it be interpreted and what effects will it have on minorities.

Many observers of events in Egypt were surprised by the strength of Wahhabi-Salafism there. This group wants nothing less than a Saudi-style system with women behind the veil, minorities reduced to the discriminatory dhimmi status and harsh punishments for those who drink alcohol, dress “immodestly” or violate the sexual code of Islam. Any overtures in this direction will surely result in panic amongst Christians, the extinction of tourism and an Iran-like isolation of Egypt. Unlike Iran, Egypt cannot rely on oil and the new regime will have to weigh very carefully what impact its actions have on the economy.

Another, very different, scenario is, however, also possible. Egypt has a long history of Islamic scholars seeking to understand Sharia in terms of contemporary conditions and a concern for the common good. Muhammad Abduh (d.1905), the Grand Mufti, who is venerated by both the Salafis and the Muslim Brotherhood, wanted a “pure” Islam as well as one which was compatible with reason and the conditions of the modern world. He wanted to do away with traditional interpretations of Sharia and favoured a radical reconstruction of Islamic law.…He argued for a legal system which would take Sharia into account but in which considerations of the common good would be of primacy importance.

This tradition of thought has been followed in Egypt by notable leaders such as Rashid Rida, Al-Azhar and the present Grand Mufti, Sheikh Ali Gomaa. The last two have pioneered new approaches to the notorious Islamic law on apostasy. Instead of the three days traditionally allowed to the apostate from Islam to repent or face execution, Al-Azhar scholars have argued that such a person should be allowed a lifetime to repent.…

The West has been obsessed by the idea of a secular-led “Arab Spring” but, in fact, there never was such a thing. The revolutions, throughout the Arab world, have been led by Islamist-minded movements of one kind or another. Secular opponents of the ancien regime have joined in the overthrow of a dictatorship but their options for the future appear limited.

Every effort must now be made to encourage a view of Islam, and particularly of Sharia, which can lead an open and tolerant Egypt. What Egypt does today will be globally significant tomorrow.

Abduh held that the unchanging principles of Islam should be related to changing circumstances. The protection of the person, of reason, of property and of the family can provide the basic principles around which Egyptian law is developed. What is urgently needed is a reaffirmation of the principle that there will be one law for all Egyptians which will seek to accommodate the consciences and beliefs of different elements in society.

The Church should beware of accepting a situation where it is allowed its own law, provided that…

Some kind of a Bill of Rights may be a first step. The armed forces cannot be the sole guarantors of a plural Egypt; political parties, government institutions and, in particular, Islamic organizations must commit themselves to such a vision. The alternative can be seen in many parts of the Muslim world and it is not attractive. Egypt deserves better.