I hate to end the year on a bleak note, but it’s time we recognize that a third intifada, and perhaps the most violent of all, is just around the corner.

So many signs point to another round of Palestinian-initiated warfare on the Jewish state that it’s hard to ignore them.

As the Palestinians move toward national elections, it is clear that Hamas, the terror group that insists on the destruction of Israel, will do very well, whether it wins 30 or 40 percent of the seats in the parliament. That’s the main reason Mahmoud Abbas, the seemingly well-intentioned but weak president of the Palestinian Authority, has been stalling on the elections, first planned for last summer and now for Jan. 25, and subject to further delay. He wants to wait until his Fatah faction improves its standing, though he insists that after bringing Hamas into the political process, he will be able to convince the group to put away its guns in favor of democratic government.

Dream on. Whether Abbas is naïve or duplicitous, the results will be the same: more violence.

The example of Hezbollah in Lebanon is instructive. The same argument was made about tempering the group’s military impulses — like Hamas, it is a surrogate for Iran and Syrian in its attacks on Israel — by bringing it into the political system in Beirut. But after Hezbollah gained 15 seats in the elections this year, going from eight to 23 in the 128-seat Lebanese parliament, it became more emboldened in its attempted terror attacks on Israel.

There is no indication that Hamas will be willing to give up either its arms or its calls for Israel’s destruction after the Palestinian elections, or that Abbas will have the willingness or ability to force such action, fearing a civil war he might well lose.

What’s more, for all of the generally favorable perceptions of Abbas in the West as a reasonable leader opposed to violence, the fact is that he has emerged as Arafat Lite — a modern-looking man who speaks rationally and decries suicide bombings but who refuses to crack down on the militant elements within his own Fatah and continues to give complicit assent to terror.

A report earlier this month in the Palestinian daily, al Hayat al Jadida, noted that Abbas signed a new law to provide funds each month for the families of suicide bombers. An earlier law this year set aside $50 million for the families of terrorists in Israeli jails and those wounded in attacks on Israel. And suicide bombers are still honored as “martyrs.”

So much for changing the mindset about killing Israelis rather than dealing with them. Abbas may employ the rhetoric of reason but his actions allow for, if not encourage, violence.

In addition, the fear that after disengagement the tunnels along the Gaza border will be used to smuggle arms to the militants has proved true. Military experts warn that the terror groups will graduate from the stones of the first intifada and suicide bombs of the second to rockets and missiles in a third intifada, with the target being West Bank settlements.

Israelis who believed that the painful displacement of Jewish communities in Gaza and parts of the West Bank would satisfy the Palestinians and staunch their quest for more land have been proven mistaken. Rather, driven by rhetoric from Hamas, there is a sense among many Palestinians that powerful Israel was forced out of Gaza, proving the military success of the suicide war. The message, then, is that the only way to get Israel to leave the West Bank is to launch another series of violent attacks. And since the security fence has put a crimp on the efforts of suicide bombers to penetrate into Israel, the next mode of attack will be new Kassam rockets — more accurate and with a longer range — that cannot be stopped by fences or walls.

What’s being done by the Israelis to prepare for another round of warfare? Diplomats acknowledge that the peace process is stalled, not only until after the Palestinian and Israeli elections, but for the foreseeable future. Hamas and the Palestinian Authority will be struggling for internal control, and there will be no one with the desire or courage to push for negotiations with Israel.

The Israeli army is well aware of these developments and seeking means to protect its citizens. One of the advantages of leaving Gaza, army officials believe, is being able to respond to Palestinian attacks with a stronger hand, no longer having to worry about the impact on the small Jewish community there or the IDF presence in Gaza. What’s more, Jerusalem can assert that it is the PA’s responsibility now to prevent violent outbreaks from the area.

But what we have is a recipe for another round of warfare, since Hamas is growing in popularity and clout among the Palestinians, and no one on their side will prevent them, or Fatah for that matter, from escalating attacks on Israel. It seems clear, though, that if the rockets come, Israel will strike back hard.

For all the diplomatic talk in the air, the only road map I envision for 2006 is one leading toward more bloodshed, though I pray I am wrong. n

E-mail: Gary@jewishweek.org

Gary Rosenblatt can be reached by e-mail at Gary@jewishweek.org.