For all the confusion about who Faisal Shahzad is and how he got that way, there is one sure thing the failed Times Square bomber has shown us: The future of terrorism.
“Our threat picture in the US just got a lot more complicated,” says Ben Venzke, CEO of IntelCenter, a private group specializing in counter-terrorism that works with American and European military and intelligence agencies.
In short, it’s no longer just al Qaeda aiming to strike within the United States: “Now we have half-a-dozen or more very skilled groups looking to execute attacks,” he says. “Even getting close is a success for them.”
CHRISTOPHER SADOWSKI
The bomb squad goes to work in TImes Square on May 1.
This, he and other specialists agree, is terrorism post 9/11: small-scale launches requiring only one person to execute, regarded by these terror networks as successes, even if they fail.
“I think we are going to see more individual terrorists and very small conspiracies,” says Brian Jenkins, senior adviser to the president of the RAND Corporation. “The good news is that we’re not going to see the Mumbais or the 9/11s [here]. The bad news is that they’re extremely hard to pick up.”
Though the lone terrorist is not unprecedented (would-be dirty bomber Jose Padilla, shoe bomber Richard Reid, and, most recenlty, Umar Farouk Abdul Mutallab, who attempted to blow up a Delta flight over Detroit on Christmas Day), Venzke believes that Shahzad’s attempt is a tipping point. “We talk about Times Square every New Year’s Eve, and nothing happens,” he says. “Had Shahzad’s bomb worked, that would’ve been it. 9/11 is a statistical anomaly. If you kill more than 50, you’re already in the top tier. You start to join the special club when you’re over 100.” That the Pakistani Taliban (known as the TTP) released a warning of multiple attacks soon to come in major US cities, Venzke says, is especially concerning: “Terrorists usually follow through on what they’re saying, and the TTP is a very competent group able to pull off large-scale bombings and multiple attacks.” (Those, though, have all been regional; they have yet to successfully launch a major one at a substantial distance).
Al Qaeda’s ability to plan and launch strikes abroad has been degraded since Sept. 11, due both to the war in Afghanistan and a loss of support among Muslims in the region. They’ve maintained power by merging with smaller networks such as the TTP), al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQ-AP), al Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQ-IM), al Qaeda in Iraq, and Al-Shabab in Somalia and Lashkar-e-Taiba, which was responsible for the 2008 attack in Mumbai. (Though weakened, al Qaeda remains attractive to smaller groups because of the 9/11 attacks and Osama bin Laden’s emeritus status, their centralized communications network, and their dedication to radical global jihad.)
http://www.nypost.com/p/news/opinion/opedcolumnists/rise_of_the_mini_qaedas_8tsZuZ1anRcrtPQ9EZLCQK#ixzz1ZjNkGCpw
