http://dougsaunders.net/2010/06/europe%E2%80%99s-ideological-indecision-cleaves-the-netherlands-after-wednesday%E2%80%99s-vote/

Buffeted by economic turmoil and culture wars, the voters of the Netherlands Wednesday delivered a nail-biting outcome that appeared to favour the major right-wing party by only one seat.


Former Amsterdam mayor Job Cohen, whose Labour Party was unexpectedly successful in the Dutch vote

With 96.5 per cent of votes counted, the pro-business VVD (Freedom and Democracy) Party led the Labour Party by 31 seats to 30 in the 150-seat parliament, a result that spelled weeks and possibly months of haggling to fashion a ruling coalition among parties deeply split on immigration and how to curb government spending.

Polls had predicted that the economically conservative VVD party of Mark Rutte, a committed budget slasher, would win the plurality of votes and therefore the prime ministership. However, former Amsterdam mayor Job Cohen, a social democrat renowned for his tolerant approach to the integration of immigrants, posted a strong recovery for Labour. Final results will be known on Thursday.

Most dramatically, the anti-Islam firebrand Geert Wilders rose from obscurity to third place with 24 seats, bringing his far-right party into the mainstream of Western European politics – under Dutch constitutional rules, the other parties must involve him in coalition talks, and his result was strong enough that he could end up with a cabinet position in a conservative coalition government.

“We are the big winners,” Mr. Wilders said. “This is a glorious day for the Netherlands. … half a million people chose our agenda for hope and optimism. More safety, less immigration, less Islam is what the Netherlands wants.”

More likely, given the revulsion that Mr. Wilders evokes in mainstream Dutch and European circles, whoever governs will probably be forced to form an awkward left-right coalition with two equally strong major parties in order to avoid having Mr. Wilders in the cabinet.

The race between VVD and Labor was so tight that party leaders canceled their traditional postelection debate, saying they couldn’t discuss the results until they were sure what they were. Returns from the 12 million eligible voters were expected through the night, and the official results won’t be declared until June 15, when all votes from overseas have also been counted.

It was a devastating night for prime minister Jan Peter Balkenende’s moderately conservative Christian Democrats, who governed for eight years until January when their right-left coalition collapsed in a dispute over withdrawal from Afghanistan: Mr. Balkenende wanted to extend the deployment beyond August, and Labour refused to consider it, forcing an election. Exit polls showed the Christian Democrats falling to fourth place, behind Mr. Wilders, losing half their seats.

This result ended the political career of Mr. Balkenende. “The electorate has spoken – I end my party leadership immediately,” he announced in The Hague last night, his wife at his side. The result was “very, very disappointing,” he said. “I have to take responsibility.”

What will follow will be an awkward period of behind-the-scenes coalition negotiations that could drag on for weeks or months. There is little common ground among the major parties, and most scenarios would involve at least one fringe party.

The easiest government, a “purple” coalition, would combine Mr. Cohen’s Labour, Mr. Rutte’s VVD and the Christian Democrats in a cross-ideological government of mainstream parties.

Before the news broke of the VVD’s 31st seat, there was talk of Mr. Cohen perhaps forming a left-wing coalition, since both his party and smaller left and green parties did well, with the left-leaning D66 liberals rising from seven to 10 seats, the Socialists up from nine to 16 seats, and the Greens more than doubling their standing from four to 11 MPs. With the support of some moderate Christian Democrats, this would be enough for a majority.

Mr. Rutte would be unlikely to accept this, though. His chances of forming an all-conservative “blue” coalition, however, are even weaker – even if he were willing to accept Mr. Wilders (whose party would form a large enough bloc that his far-right party could demand important cabinet positions), the coalition would likely also require the support of a fundamentalist Christian party.

All the leaders except Mr. Rutte made promises during the campaign that they would never enter a government with Mr. Wilders. While the constitution requires his party take part in coalition negotiations, the odds are low that he will end up participating in government.

Mr. Rutte and Mr. Cohen may well end up sharing power in a government much like the recently-elected British coalition of Conservative David Cameron and Liberal Democrat Nick Clegg. Indeed, Mr. Clegg’s and Mr. Rutte’s parties are both members of the Liberal group in the European Parliament, and Mr. Clegg is half Dutch.

Mr. Rutte’s party, while considered liberal in European terms (in other words, free market), has moved far to the right of others. He is skeptical of the European Union and of immigration – he called for a complete freeze during the campaign – and his budget cuts, of €20-billion ($25-billion) a year for four years extend far beyond fiscal needs and would reduce the size and power of government dramatically.

Mr. Cohen, a social democrat, did not impress Dutch voters during television debates over the economy, stumbling over some fiscal questions, although he ran a tight budgetary ship as appointed mayor of Amsterdam.

Nevertheless, this means there is a gaping ideological chasm between the two men, far wider than that between the British politicians, and a coalition between them would be fractious and difficult if it could even be negotiated.

The VVD has pledged to slash the deficit by cutting government spending and welfare programs. Labor has criticized the program as harmful to the poor.

Labor wants to preserve government social programs, raise taxes on the wealthy and make it easier for immigrants to integrate rather than punishing those that fail.

“This country spends too much. For a lot of people it’s better to collect social security than to work,” said Willem Bosma, 32, a civil servant and VVD supporter casting his vote in Amsterdam’s main train station.

Although not as outspoken against immigration as Wilders, Rutte has also argued that immigrants who cannot contribute to the Dutch economy should not be allowed to come, and he would ban them from receiving welfare for 10 years after arrival.