Two security experts share their thoughts on the recent assassinations that have hit the government of Afghan President Hamid Karzai.

Why do Afghan public figures seem more vulnerable now? Is it a fluke or related to the Taliban announcing a few months ago they have a target list?

Stephen Saideman, Canada research chair in international security and ethnic conflict: It might reflect a change in strategy as counter-IED efforts, more troops in the field, etc., are making a difference. Some of these deaths may not be caused by Taliban but by other power dynamics within Afghanistan. It could be the case that Karzai’s top folks are getting killed because Karzai has been trying to stack his legislature so that he can get another term.

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Karzai's brother assassinated in Kandahar

Mark Sedra, senior fellow at the Centre for International Governance Innovation: All indications are that the Taliban carried out all three recent assassinations. What is different is that they targeted high-profile officials rather than local administrators and police commanders. With the Taliban losing some ground in the south due to the U.S. troop surge, they have clearly shifted focus and resources to high-level assassinations. The goal of these killings like the brazen assault at the Intercontinental Hotel in Kabul is to demonstrate that the Taliban have the capability to strike anywhere at any time and to shake the confidence of Afghans in the Karzai government. They have been able to convey the image that they have the initiative, despite some NATO military gains on the battlefield.

What security steps can NATO and the Afghan government take? There now have been two incidents where a suicide bomber hid his device in his turban.

Saideman: Notice that the attacks are not within NATO bases, so that might say something about whose security seems to be functional. The killer of the President’s half-brother, Ahmed Wali Karzai, was allowed to carry a weapon. I am not sure what it means about the turbans, but my best guess is that adjustments will be made to make this tactic harder. This entire 10-year campaign has been one of each side learning and adapting to the other, so I expect more adaptations by all involved.

Sedra: If you are an Afghan public figure, meeting with community, tribal and political leaders is not just a political necessity, but a matter of honour. You cannot situate local leaders on military bases or in fortified compounds at all times without depriving them of credibility and legitimacy.

Considering that Ahmed Wali Karzai was killed by a senior member of his own security team, greater vetting of personnel is needed. The Taliban claim to have informants and sympathizers throughout the government, and evidence suggests such claims are not off-base. Some changes will also have to be made to personal search protocols, but this will be up to the Afghans. Appointing international security forces, either military or private, to protect Afghan officials would only open up the government to criticism.

What does the future hold when a country’s officials are sitting ducks?

Saideman: The future of Afghanistan is pretty dismal, but the bright side is that the police have been targets for years yet people still join. Of course, the same is true for middle-level Taliban commanders. We have been effectively targeting those folks yet people still fill the slots.

Sedra: We are likely to see continued instability in the country with terrorist strikes and political assassinations the Taliban’s weapon of choice in the short to medium term. With the government having lost a great deal of legitimacy due to its administrative shortcomings and rampant corruption, it is difficult to see it survive long after a full international withdrawal. Without some sort of peace agreement with the Taliban and other spoiler groups, a return to civil war is a distinct possibility.

The responses have been condensed and edited.