Last week’s massacre in Oslo is a stark reminder that terrorism remains a persistent threat. Friday’s rampage left at least 76 individuals dead. The suspect, Norwegian citizen Anders Breivik, appears to have been motivated by radical xenophobia and ultra-nationalist sentiments. In a 1,500-page manifesto, he calls for a crusade against Europe’s Muslims.

Coverage of the attack has understandably focused on Breivik’s fundamentalism. Unlike all other recent mass-casualty terrorist plots in Europe, violent Islamism was not a factor. The coming weeks will bring us fresh analysis of Europe’s nationalist movements. And following Osama bin Laden’s elimination and in light of the transformation sweeping the Arab world, some of that analysis will suggest that the threat of al-Qaeda-inspired violence has been overshadowed by right-wing violence.

It would be a mistake, however, to use Oslo to shift attention away from al-Qaeda. While the organization has been weakened, we shouldn’t underestimate its ability to recover.

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Jonathan Kay on Anders Breivik and The Turner Diaries: How a 2011 Norwegian massacre echoes a 1978 American novel

It’s true that al-Qaeda has been stung by recent events. The Arab Spring has achieved more in four months than al-Qaeda has in decades — much to their embarrassment. Al-Qaeda’s ideology and modus operandi dictate that bloodshed is the only way to affect political change. But now there’s a new approach on the block and al-Qaeda is scrambling to illustrate why it’s still relevant, and to justify its focus on violence while popular protests have achieved so much. Other groups, like Hamas and Hezbollah, and state sponsors of terrorism, like Syria and Iran, have likewise lost legitimacy and prestige. Arabs are marching for democracy, not for violent ideologies. And bin Laden’s demise robs al-Qaeda of an irreplaceable architect of terror. No leader — and certainly not bin Laden’s successor Ayman al-Zawahri — can match his credentials or charisma.

But hidden among these setbacks are opportunities for growth. Consider the Arab Spring; which may help rather than hurt al-Qaeda.

Political change can easily lead to political chaos. As governments teeter, borders become porous, easing the movement of weapons and militants between and within countries. And as security forces fire on protesters rather than on militants, al-Qaeda catches a break. In the meantime, undefended weapons stockpiles have been raided and prisons in Tunisia, Egypt, Libya, and most worrisome, in Yemen, have been emptied. This has put sophisticated weaponry — including anti-aircraft missiles — within al-Qaeda’s reach and suspected radicals back on the street.

But most critically, if the Arab Spring is unable to address the grievances that mobilized people in the first place, al-Qaeda’s ideology will be given a second chance. If democracy fails, if chaos and crime become the norm, if economies falter, or if religious, tribal, or sectarian divisions erupt, al-Qaeda wins.

Likewise, with al-Qaeda’s leadership pinned down in Afghanistan and Pakistan, opportunities in the Middle East and North Africa will give al-Qaeda’s affiliates a chance to raise their profiles. Al-Qaeda of the Islamic Maghreb, for instance, is especially well placed to take advantage of the mayhem in North Africa. It is rearming and may attempt to expand its influence into Libya. As for al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP), it recently captured territory in southern Yemen. Given its record of targeting the West — first in 2009 with underwear bomber Umar Abdulmutallab and then in 2010 with the cargo plane plot — AQAP will use its new haven to launch further attacks. And with an uptick of violence in Iraq, faltering NATO campaigns in Afghanistan and Libya, unravelling U.S.-Pakistan relations, and utter anarchy in Somalia, al-Qaeda’s local supporters will enjoy greater mobility.

As for bin Laden, it’s a mistake to oversell his importance.

Al-Qaeda completed its decentralization years ago. In its statement confirming his death, al-Qaeda warned that “Sheikh Osama did not build this organization to die with his death.” Al-Qaeda’s affiliates are independent and self-perpetuating. While they pledged allegiance to bin Laden, he had little control over their operations. His elimination deprives them of an inspiring figure but it doesn’t hamper their ability to plan acts of terrorism.

Al-Qaeda will also continue Westernizing its propaganda. AQAP just published another issue of its English-language journal advocating “do-it-yourself terrorism”, while Somali and Pakistani militants have propagated their message among diaspora communities. The goal is to attract Western recruits.

Al-Qaeda may be down, but it isn’t out. Despite last week’s outrage in Oslo, it would be a mistake to reprioritize our counterterrorism efforts.

National Post

Alex Wilner is a fellow at the Macdonald-Laurier Institute in Ottawa and a senior researcher at the Center for Security Studies (CSS) at the ETH Zurich. This commentary is based on a recent CSS report.