MANAMA, Bahrain — After suppressing an uprising that threatened to topple its monarchy, Bahrain appeared to be returning to its time-tested formula for stifling dissent from its Shiite majority and rallying support from international partners.

The strategy, which in part relies on raising the specter that Iran is manipulating events to expand its reach in the region, could backfire, analysts and opposition politicians say.

The Sunni monarchy that has ruled Bahrain for 200 years, these people say, is trying to win over moderate opposition figures with promises of reform, while arresting activists and cracking down on protests.

But Bahrain watchers say the strategy may not work this time around. The ferocity of Bahrain's recent military crackdown has deepened Shiite opposition to the country's Sunni ruling family and hardened opposition parties' resolve to refuse limited political concessions. It also could transform cultural links between Bahrain's Shiite community and Tehran into an actual political alliance as they press their anti-government cause.

Accusations that Iran was behind the Bahraini antigovernment movement have multiplied in recent days.

On Tuesday, the former commander-in-chief of the United Arab Emirates air force, Maj. Gen. Khalid Al Buainnain, accused Iran of plotting a "complete conspiracy" in Bahrain. He said his country refused to send aircraft to aid efforts to impose a no-fly zone in Libya because it didn't think the U.S. and Europe took the Iranian threat seriously enough.

On Friday, Bahraini Foreign Minister Sheikh Khalid bin Ahmed bin Khalifa said Iran's statements supporting opposition protesters were a "blatant interference in the affairs of Bahrain," and warned Tehran to stop "exporting its problems abroad."

No concrete links have surfaced between the two, but Iran has ratcheted up its rhetoric against Bahrain's government after Saudi Arabia sent in troops to support Bahrain's royal family against protesters this month.

Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmedinejad has called the crackdown on protesters "foul," while a senior Iranian cleric on Friday urged Bahrain's majority Shiites to keep up their protests—until death or victory—against the Sunni monarchy.

On Monday, Iranian-backed Shiite group Hezbollah supported Bahraini protesters, and criticized Arab states for backing Bahrain's rulers while supporting the rebels in Libya.

 Iran's English-language state media channel Press TV has broadcast rolling coverage of what it labels "the Bahraini revolution" since protests erupted here almost six weeks ago.

But some say that mounting Bahraini accusations and the Iranian rhetoric could produce a self-fulfilling prophecy that may ultimately push protesters into the arms of Tehran.

"It's opening a door to Iranian influence whether it was there or not in the past," said Jean-Francois Seznec, a Bahrain expert at Georgetown University.

Bahrain is unique among the Gulf monarchies as it houses a Shiite majority ruled by a Sunni minority.

That demographic has historically fed fears in the country that Iran, which officially laid claim to Bahrain for 17 years until 1971 and since the Islamic revolution in 1979 has periodically encouraged Bahraini Shiites to rise up against their rulers, could co-opt Bahraini Shiites to expand its regional influence.

Those fears are shared by regional heavyweight Saudi Arabia, which houses a restive Shiite minority in its oil-rich Eastern province, which has expressed solidarity with Bahraini protesters and has been emboldened to gather, though in smaller numbers, to call for reform.

Bahrain's government accused its opponents of being in league with Tehran in 1994 during an uprising on the island that brought thousands into the streets. Bahraini state media painted activists as traitors and warned that Iran was sponsoring the unrest.In recent days, Bahrain has stepped up accusations that Tehran is behind the protests, with King Hamad bin Isa al-Khalifah on Sunday saying that the government had foiled a decades-long terror plot from outsiders, in a thinly veiled reference to Iran.

At the Shiite protests, where the rhetoric and iconography is reminiscent of Iran, protesters insist they have no allegiance to the Islamic Republic. Many criticize Tehran for isolating their movement abroad.

"We are very angry at Iran because they're making it very difficult for us—their interference makes Americans refuse to help," Hussain Ali, a 32-year-old computer technician from outside Manama, said Tuesday.

Raising the alarm over Iranian meddling isn't the only familiar policy Bahrain's government has employed in the midst of domestic unrest. In an echo of moves to suppress dissent in the 1990s when the U.S. liberation of Kuwait emboldened opposition movements across the region, Bahraini security services cracked down on protesters before fanning out across the island, marshalling a heavy presence in Shiite villages on the outskirts of Manama.

The government has imposed a curfew and banned all public gatherings and marches. Scores of opposition sympathizers have been arrested, as have seven senior opposition leaders, some of whom were jailed in the 1990s for opposition political activity.

Following six weeks of escalating antigovernment protests, the King last week declared a three-month state of emergency and ordered Bahraini troops, backed by Saudi Arabian and Gulf military forces, to sweep protesters from the capital's financial district and from their encampment at Pearl roundabout.

The Bahraini government has said the crackdown was aimed at restoring law and order, a stance supported by the vast majority of the Kingdom's Sunni community as a necessary step.

The government has also stressed that it is still open to dialogue, an offer first extended by Crown Prince Salman bin Hamad Al-Khalifa in February when Bahraini troops were withdrawn from the streets and peaceful protests were allowed to go on.

Lawmakers from largest opposition bloc, the moderate Al-Wefaq party, say the ruling family is attempting a replay of 2001, when the king pledged to moderate opposition parties that he would devolve power into a constitutional monarchy. He pulled back a year later, leaving control in the hands of the ruling family.

Those lawmakers also say the scale of the opposition support is far greater than in previous decades, and that the ferocity of the government's crackdown has radicalized protesters, leaving politicians little room to cut deals with the government.

"The government is using the same play book it uses every time—they want to break the political unity of the opposition and destroy its momentum. But this time, they will struggle because we can't accept a compromise political solution. Too many people have been killed," said Jawad Fairooz, a senior member of Al-Wefaq.

Policy analysts agree that the scale of Bahrain's opposition movement could frustrate the government's strategy, with the intervention of foreign forces potentially heightening tensions between communities.

"The government's moves are reminiscent of the 1990s—but I fear we could be seeing something much worse. The deployment of Gulf forces is a huge escalation, which has upped the stakes and is only going to result in a more sectarian response," said Jane Kinninmont, a Bahrain specialist at Chatham House, a foreign affairs think tank.

The government's sweeping security crackdown appears to have thrown the opposition into disarray, but demonstrators say they are determined to maintain momentum.

Thousands marched through central Manama on Tuesday to bury the first woman killed in clashes that erupted here six weeks ago. As the crowds followed the casket through the capital's old town, they slapped their chests and called for the fall of the ruling family and for Saudi Arabian troops to leave Bahrain.