What would the West, primarily the United States, like to see happen in the region? Is their goal to arrive at the practical implementation of the "road map," which will end up with two states, Israel and Palestine, living alongside one another - or do they want their achievements to end up only with the democratization of the territories? The failure of the United States to establish democracy in Iraq should teach the West at least one important lesson - that when it comes to democracy in the Middle East, the choice is not between Arab dictatorship and Western democracy, but rather between a secular dictatorship with democratic elements, as in Egypt, in Jordan or in Morocco, and a fundamentalist Islamic dictatorship, as in Saudi Arabia and in Iran.

Therefore, the possibility that a new Palestinian leadership will be democratically elected on January 25th is a realistic one. However, the possibility that such a leadership will succeed in reaching a peace agreement with Israel is far from realistic. Marwan Barghouti, Jibril Rajoub and Mohammed Dahlan of Fatah, and Mahmoud al-Zahar and Ismail Henia of Hamas, are in fact people with democratic qualities, but it is doubtful whether these five, and the group of young people with them, possess the key to the conclusion of the conflict with the State of Israel.

The political culture in the West Bank and the Gaza Strip in the past four decades demonstrates a phenomenon unique to Palestinian society: The leadership on the front line with Israel will always be more democratic that its predecessor, but more extreme in its demands of Israel. Already in late 1967, then-prime minister Levy Eshkol tried to sign an agreement to establish self-rule in the West Bank and the Gaza Strip, with two of the representatives of the traditional aristocratic families - Mohammed Jabari of Hebron and Mazuz al Masri of Nablus. The agreement did not succeed, and then for the first time an anti-Israeli body made an appearance in the territories, the Palestine National Front (PNP). The leadership was far more democratic and liberal than Jabari and Al Masri, but it was composed of a militant band of supporters of the Syrian Baath party and of Communists supported by the Soviet Union, who considered Israel an existential danger.

Advertisement

When the leaders of the PNP were expelled to Lebanon in 1973, they were replaced after a while by the members of the Council for National Guidance. The collective and plu.ralistic leadership, which included no fewer than 25 elected officials from all the Palestinian groups - Fatah, the Marxist-Leninist left, and for the first time, the religious Islamic group as well. This democratic body declared war on the Camp David agreements and the autonomy plan. In 1982, the CNG was also outlawed, and five years later, Israel, which had deliberately left a vacuum in local leadership, got the first intifada, led by a group of young and violent leaders who were determined to clash with Israel. Many of them are today candidates for election to the Palestinian Parliament.

The first intifada ended when the Palestine Liberation Organization (PLO) arrived in the territories, but since its leadership was eventually considered too centralized, and too eager for concessions and reconciliation, the Palestinian public quickly found the way to present an alternative. The Al Aqsa intifada therefore gave rise to a mixture of fundamentalist leaders (Hamas and Islamic Jihad) and the leaders of anarchist gangs operating under the sponsorship of the Palestinian regime (Tanzim, Al Aqsa Martyrs Brigades); some of their members will be elected to the legislative council as well.

So it is naive on the part of the United States and Europe to think that 100 bloody years of conflict between the Zionist and the Arab national movements, and three decades and more of a violent struggle between Israelis and Palestinians, will come to an end only by encouraging the election of Marwan Barghouti and his gang. Assuming that history will repeat itself, at the end of January we will discover that Israel?s new partner is very democratic, but also very extremist in its demands. Therefore, the key will once again be in the hands of the West. All the means of pressure available there - from severing diplomatic ties to stopping the transfer of money - must be applied to the democratic leadership that is about to arise in the Palestinian Authority, in order to force it to be flexible, to compromise and to talk peace. Otherwise, the next leader to conduct the negotiations with Israel will be as democratic as Yasser Arafat and as liberal as Izz al-din al Qassam.

Colonel (res.) Elad served in various positions in the territories, and at present researches Palestinian society.