What this column described on Friday as Benjamin Netanyahu's "big wink," a clever tactical ruse designed to freeze construction in the West Bank for 10 months only, has turned into a full-fledged revolt much faster than we expected. Not only do the settlers not believe the prime minister's promises that they will be able to build again when the 10 months are up, but members of the "septet" of leading cabinet ministers have also been assailed by doubts.

Vice Premier Moshe Ya'alon has declared publicly that "this was not the child I prayed for when I voted for the freeze." While some argue that Ya'alon is simply a bit slow on the uptake, he surprised us once before, and not long ago, when at a conference of Moshe Feiglin's supporters in Likud he compared members of Peace Now with viruses (in contrast to the "vipers" he discovered when he served as army chief of staff). And now, after initially supporting the construction freeze, he has recanted. This is not the first time he has spoken out of both sides of his mouth. All we wanted, he said, was to throw a bone to the hungry U.S. administration.

Netanyahu has repeated, on a smaller scale, Ariel Sharon's mistake when he unilaterally evacuated the Gush Katif settlements in the Gaza Strip without receiving anything in exchange from the Palestinians. But Bibi has yet to evacuate anything; ultimately, he merely made a minor gesture in order to reduce the pressure on Israel, mainly from U.S. President Barack Obama, who will soon receive the Nobel Peace Prize for the nonexistent peace he has made. So it is all the more understandable that the Palestinians are not impressed by the promised freeze and are not hastening to Bibi's aid.

Council heads of West Bank settlements have made it clear that they will not carry out the freeze orders; they compared the government's decision to the White Paper under the British Mandate. Industry, Trade and Labor Minister Benjamin Ben-Eliezer claims his inspectors are "too busy" with their regular work to hand out construction freeze orders. Likud activists are demanding that the party's central committee convene urgently. Danny Dayan, chairman of the Yesha Council of settlements, charged that the Netanyahu government is "frothing at the mouth" to enforce the freeze. Shaul Goldstein, head of the Gush Etzion Regional Council, penned a harsh letter to Bibi: "Israel has turned into a totalitarian state. The enforcement method is liable to cause a civil war .... The defense minister's modus operandi recalls benighted regimes."

Benny Begin, like many other cabinet ministers, does not believe there is a Palestinian partner. There is no one to talk to, these ministers say. But so far, the "there's no one to talk to" department is supporting Bibi's move and will continue doing so as long as it is clear that the "10-month freeze" is an empty gesture.

In the settlements, however, the waves of protest and opposition currently look like a tsunami in the making. The concern that it could eventually flood the country, sweeping aside everything in its path, is a serious one. We are not talking here about mere vocal opposition like that of MK Tzipi Hotovely. And Bibi is trying to look determined in the face of the rebellious settlers, whose motive is ideological.

They present themselves as being like the old-time pioneers who built the country, dunam by dunam. When Netanyahu decided on the limited freeze, I assume he thought the settlers would understand that this would prove that the Palestinians don't want to reach an agreement with Israel. But the settlers are not willing to play such dangerous games. That is why they do not want to wait 10 months to see whether Bibi will keep his promise; whether his statement that "the settlers are our brothers and sisters" has any meaning. And for all his remonstrances, we are now, for the first time, witnessing a confrontation that borders on rebellion or insurrection between an elected government and its citizens in the West Bank.

Instead of "two states for two peoples," Bibi's initiative has revealed an Israel with two peoples inhabiting a single state. It is not clear whether he realized the opposition would be this fierce and this violent. But it is clear that when the time comes to evacuate outposts the opposition will be even more violent and could even degenerate into bloodshed. Because over there, they don't buy ruses accompanied by a wink.

If negotiations with the Palestinians resume before the 10 months are over, as the settlers fear will happen, this will not be an "edict of destruction," as Danny Dayan claims, but rather a renewed effort to determine the state's permanent borders. Ze'ev Jabotinsky is dead and the dream of the "Greater Land of Israel" was buried by Sharon. Netanyahu must prove that he is cut from the cloth that turns a compulsive manipulator into a leader of the nation as a whole - and that he has the strength of mind to suppress the rebellion.

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