Talk about lousy timing. President Bush and his energy secretary, Samuel Bodman, separately traveled through the Middle East earlier this month asking Saudi Arabia and other big oil exporters to boost output -- just in time for the supply-demand backdrop to change. Indicators are now pointing to an upturn in global oil supplies, and forecasters are saying demand won't be as strong as they previously thought, as the global economy slows.

The upshot: When the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries meets Friday in Vienna, the group probably won't heed the administration's loud call for a production boost. Quite to the contrary, some players within OPEC are talking now about the potential need to cut production, if not at this gathering, then perhaps at the club's regular session in March.

The administration has argued for months that surging oil demand in many parts of the world has left global stockpiles unusually low. That squeeze, Mr. Bodman told the Saudis and others during his recent Mideast trip, has sent oil prices soaring to levels that are now putting a dent in the U.S. economy.

But when OPEC ministers and most oil analysts now look at the market, they see a far different picture. Stockpiles are now rising rapidly in the U.S. Seasonal winter demand, typically at its high point now, is about to taper off. High energy costs, combined with economic unease in the U.S., are already damping the thirst for oil, not just in the U.S. but in most of the developed world.

At the same time, production is expected to ramp up soon from non-OPEC suppliers such as Brazil. Biofuels, ethanol in particular, are also expected to make a notable impact this year for the first time ever, adding as much as 400,000 barrels a day, according to some estimates.

Then comes the simple fact that prices are falling. From an all-time intraday high of $100.09 on Jan. 4, prices for the U.S. benchmark crude on the New York Mercantile Exchange have since slid down to around $90. OPEC, which now supplies just under 40% of the world's oil needs, is not known for upping production in the face of falling prices.

"The administration's timing could not have been worse," says Larry Goldstein, an economist at the Energy Policy Research Foundation. "In this current environment, I can't see how OPEC could possibly agree to an increase in output quotas."

OPEC officials are saying the same thing. No, they haven't decided yet what they will do in Vienna on Friday. But neither are they inclined, they say, to give President Bush his wish for more oil.

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