Yesterday marked the second anniversary of the assassination of former Lebanese prime minister Rafik Hariri. Tragically, but not surprisingly, it was foreshadowed the day before by two bomb blasts that ripped apart commuter buses in the Christian community of Bikfaya northeast of Beirut. The attacks have muddied the already murky waters of Lebanon's politics.

But if we step back from the tensions and outbursts of violence that define Lebanon and the region, and try to see the larger trends that define the past two years, we would see three principal parties competing for power in the Mideast. These are: traditional Middle Eastern security-dominated states such as Syria, Egypt, Jordan, Iran, and Fatah in Palestine; Islamist and militant movements that generally challenge these state powers (even as they work with them in some cases, such as Hezbollah's ties with Syria and Iran); and, foreign governments, mainly the United States, Israel and some Europeans, who increasingly engage in the Middle East with their armies and diplomatic dictates. Advocates of democracy and the rule of law poke their heads into this scene, with little success.

The Middle East seems like the world's last frontier, and as various forces compete to control the landscape and define its ideology, new players, such as Russia, China, the international business community, and the UN Security Council appear on stage. In the past two years -- as they have for half a century -- these forces have converged on Lebanon in many forms: local political and sectarian foes, military battles with Israel, ideological face-offs with regional powers, the direct involvement of foreign armies and governments, and enhanced involvement by the United Nations and its peacekeeping forces.

What deserves the most attention on this second anniversary of Rafik Hariri's murder, however, is the international tribunal mandated by the Security Council to try those who will be accused of the Hariri assassination.

The historic dynamic here is that the international community is confronting head-on the tradition of modern Arab political violence and intimidation. It seeks to end the impunity that criminal assassins have enjoyed in the modern Arab world, especially when those killers are part of, or hired by, ruling regimes and security agencies.

The investigation initially pointed the finger toward Syria a year ago, and provided information that prompted the Beirut government to detain four top Lebanese security chiefs -- itself an extraordinary development. Syria has declared its innocence, and has fought back using every available means, including various allies in Lebanon.

Friends of Syria say Damascus is leading the fight against the U.S., which is said to be using the UN investigation to bludgeon Arab foes, just as it used its army to change the regime in Baghdad. Enemies of Syria accuse it of the serial killing of Lebanese public figures, and of being willing to turn Lebanon into a desolate wasteland in the Assad regime's bid to dominate the Levant.

Our hope is that the final findings of the UN investigation this year will provide the solid evidence that might allow us to judge which of these views is closer to the truth.

In the meantime, it seems that street battles, media confrontations, and even occasional wars will not significantly change the general balance of power in Lebanon or the region, where pro-Syrian/Iranian forces and pro-American forces are equally matched.

The political struggle over the international tribunal strikes me as crucial because it holds out the hope of punishing those who have killed with impunity and who have kept the Arab world in the stranglehold of its own violent political retardation. The Bikfaya bombings only heighten our revulsion at Arab political criminality, yet also add to the urgency of ending it.

The Hariri murder tribunal is the first serious attempt to counter the rule of the gangsters in the Arab world with the rule of law; to replace criminal impunity with judicial accountability. Critics of the tribunal's terms must be heard, and their legitimate objections must be met with reasonable modifications. But the process must be completed, or the Arab world will face many more decades of death on the world's last lawless frontier.

Rami G. Khouri is the director of the Issam Fares Institute at the American University of Beirut and editor-at-large of the Beirut-based Daily Star.

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