Rice to ask unelected allies to help fight Islamic extremism, MARK MacKINNON writes

A year ago, Condoleezza Rice arrived in Cairo preaching about the importance of spreading democracy in the Middle East, even if that meant risking other short-term goals.

"The U.S. pursuit of stability in the Middle East at the expense of democracy has achieved neither," the U.S. Secretary of State told an audience at the American University in Cairo. No one needed to be told that she was referring to the long-held U.S. practice of propping up unloved autocrats like Egypt's Hosni Mubarak or Saudi Arabia's Royal Family. "Now we are taking a different course," she promised. "We are supporting the democratic aspirations of all people."

Ms. Rice arrives in Cairo today to give a very different message at a mini-summit with the foreign ministers of Egypt, Jordan and Saudi Arabia, as well as the Persian Gulf kingdoms of Kuwait, Bahrain, Qatar, Oman and the United Arab Emirates.

All eight countries are U.S. allies in the war on terrorism, but none have democratically elected leaders. But her primary message will not be about the need for reforms, but a request for help in isolating two groups that draw at least some of their authority from the ballot box: the Hamas-run Palestinian Authority, and Lebanon's Hezbollah movement.

The electoral advance of the Islamists has forced the Bush administration to return to the same old prayer book that it made a show of throwing out a year ago: embracing repressive monarchs and dictators as "moderates" and friends in Washington's battle against Islamic extremism. The summer war between Israel and Hezbollah, Ms. Rice suggested yesterday, forced the strategic rethink.

"When Lebanon happened, I think [we] got in very stark relief a clear indication that there are extremist forces and moderate forces [in the Middle East]," she said to reporters travelling with her. "The countries that we are meeting . . . is a group that you would expect to support the emerging moderate forces in Lebanon, in Iraq and in the Palestinian territories."

Ms. Rice is expected to ask the Arab regimes to aid the region's wobbling pro-Western leaders, Palestinian president Mahmoud Abbas, whose loyalists have fought bloody street battles with Hamas gunmen in recent days, and Lebanese Prime Minister Fouad Siniora, who faces a challenge to his authority from Hezbollah's popular leader, Hassan Nasrallah.

She'll also ask the eight Sunni regimes to try to encourage Iraq's alienated Sunnis, who increasingly look to be at war with the U.S. supported Shia-led government in Baghdad, to join the limping political process in that country.

The Lebanon war, however, illustrated that many of the leaders she is appealing to are badly out of touch with their own people. While the Egyptian, Jordanian and Saudi governments all initially condemned Hezbollah for instigating the conflict, obediently toeing the U.S. line, Mr. Nasrallah and Hezbollah became folk heroes on the streets of many Arab capitals for standing up to what many saw as U.S.-sponsored Israeli aggression.

Having been repeatedly burned for remaining close to the United States, the Arab foreign ministers are expected to react coolly to another appeal for help from Ms. Rice.

"The Bush administration has yet to signal any change of heart toward this region, which has suffered terribly due to the muddled and biased foreign policy," read a scorching editorial that appeared yesterday in the state-run Egyptian Gazette, an English-language daily. Nothing substantive would come out of Ms. Rice's visit, the newspaper prophesized.

The paper was only saying bluntly what the foreign ministers will try to tell Ms. Rice more diplomatically when they meet today. "The Arabs have lost hope that this administration will do anything to resolve the problems, but they cannot admit this publicly," said Diaa Rashwan, a political analyst at the al-Ahram Centre for Political and Strategic Studies in Cairo.

While there is talk that Ms. Rice may try to bring Mr. Abbas and Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert back to the negotiating table, even U.S. allies in the region are skeptical. Mr. Rashwan said that rather than pushing Ms. Rice to sponsor a new peace initiative, the Arab regimes would only ask that Washington be less obvious in its support of Israel, since it is making life difficult domestically for them.

Egypt's own democrats, meanwhile, say they've stopped believing that the Americans are allies in their struggle to attain more freedoms. In separate visit to Cairo last summer, Ms. Rice met with Ayman Nour, a young lawyer who later challenged Mr. Mubarak in last year's presidential election.

Today, Mr. Nour is 10 months into a five-year prison term after being convicted on a charge of forging signatures that was widely viewed as punishment for his political opposition to the regime.

In an interview yesterday, his wife, Gamila Ismail, said her husband had put himself up for election against Mr. Mubarak, an air force commander who has ruled with emergency powers since 1981, because he believed the Americans were sincere when they said it was time to democratize the region.

"Last year the majority of young Egyptians started believing the U.S. administration was really interested and concerned in democracy. What happened later made us believe we were all wrong," she said.

She said her husband, who is suffering from diabetes and other ailments, feels betrayed and forgotten. "He's starting to wonder for the first time if what he did [running in the election] was right or wrong. He's starting to think 'I was fooled. I'm going to die here in prison.' "

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