Jordan's strategy for national security is experiencing a radical change, tailored to face the serious and intertwined political and security challenges of today. These challenges have secured Jordan a leading part in new regional efforts to combat the terrorist Al-Qaeda organization, and face Iran's increasing influence in the region against the US and its allies.

Decision makers in Jordan believe that the Iranian regional role, the coalition forged between Tehran and Damascus, the 'dissident' Hamas, Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert's plan for unilateral withdrawal from the West Bank, and the looming Palestinian civil war require a cross-border security role to uncover plots and set up the necessary political and security strategies to face them. As they say: 'prevention is better than cure' and 'politics is the art of the impossible'.

According to Jordanian estimates, a new US-led war will erupt in the region by next year at the most. Iran will be the target this time, and the region will relive the nightmare of confrontation. Besides, there are some influential currents of thought in Israel, the US, and other states, believing that chaos will be useful in the near future. This being the case, Jordan has reconsidered its political and security role at local and regional levels in order to safeguard its future, which is threatened from the west, east and north.

Meanwhile, the internal situation seems fragile. Daily life is at a constant decline because of skyrocketing fuel prices, standstill political reforms, the decline of public confidence in the government, and the tension of relations with Hamas supporters in Jordan. These supporters are represented by the influential Islamic Action Front that supported the government over the past six decades in fighting communism and nationalism.

This change required over hauling the Jordanian intelligence agency, the first to infiltrate the ranks of the global Al-Qaeda organization at the stage of its formation in the late 1980s in Afghanistan. Moreover, the Jordanian secret service has been a major regional ally in the international war on terror.

King Abdullah II, who combines military and civil education, has supervised the process of reconstruction, employing his experience in the fight against terrorism as a former commander of the Special Forces. The process has been financially and technically sponsored by the US.

A large part of the new strategy is built on the policy of an unconventional pre-emptive attack based on active cross-border intelligence, especially in neighboring states and among Iraqi and Syrian tribes living in adjacent areas. The objective is to nip terrorist operations in the bud.

There are also great efforts, sponsored by Iran, to infiltrate regional movements and parties that could be used in the future as a strategic reserve against the US and its allies if war breaks out between Tehran and Washington over the nuclear issue.

In accordance with its scenario of Armageddon, for the day after, Tehran will seek to widen the confrontation with Washington to include Iraq, Arab Gulf States and the Arab East. In this way, direct or indirect Iranian strikes will easily reach Jordanian and Israeli targets. Pro-Iran militias and parties in Iraq, Syria, Lebanon and Palestine will also become involved in the standoff.

The change in Jordan's strategy gives it the chance to play a regional, political role based on security, especially after Amman failed to boost this role when it supported the deadlocked Middle East peace process. Change came as a result of a number of thorough reconsiderations of the internal situation. It began with Jordan's involvement as a major party in the international war on terror, following the 9/11 attacks. These reconsiderations matured after the Al-Qaeda Organization in Iraq, led by Jordanian dissident Abu Mussab Al-Zarqawi bombed three hotels in Amman in November 2005.

According to officials, Jordan topped Al-Qaeda's list of targets in the region due to a personal experience that antagonized Al-Zarqawi against the security services. Another reason is the Kingdom's political, security and economic alliance with Washington and its puppets in the region. Following the Amman bombings, King Abdullah pledged to hunt down and punish Al-Zarqawi and to take the war on terror beyond Jordan's boundaries.

Security and political attention today focuses on the external, rather than on the internal. On the backdrop of the great scene is a series of crises and tension with Syria, amid a media war between the two countries and political disagreements over essentials. Jordan believes that the Syrian-Iranian alliance targets, among others, Jordan's national security. Decision makers believe that Iran, with Syrian logistic support, has defined targets in Jordan and the Gulf in case of any US-led military strike.

Decision makers claim that Damascus offers help to any organization which plans to strike Jordan, including weapon smuggling, and training elements to launch terror attacks. This was revealed in the confessions of those accused of having links to the 'Hamas arms' case. They believe that the opposing Palestinian groups have activities in Damascus in co-operation with Hezbollah to strike at Jordanian interests.

In Damascus, the official attitude towards Jordan is no better. Syria views Jordan as a key partner in the US alliance against it. Syria has serious security reservations about Jordan because Damascus believes Jordan is involved in US-planned plots to topple the Syrian regime by supporting the opposition, whether in Syria or abroad, and keeping contacts with the Sunni and Muslim Brotherhood leaders and activists who have been living in Jordan since the Homs and Hama massacres in the 1980s.

A part of the Jordanian intelligence activity abroad targets the al-Qaeda organization and its branches in Iraq and Arab countries, in addition to monitoring armed organizations in neighboring countries. The volatile region has become the scene of an intelligence race between Syria, Jordan and their allies.

Jordan is in the eye of a regional storm; it is liable to assume a key role within the group of Arab countries that may be adversely affected by Iran's growing influence. Jordan is considered a strong link in the chain to achieve stability in the region.

A part of the comprehensive strategy is based on a concept: if the Kingdom's national security can be safeguarded, the neighboring countries will also be protected. This would come about by co-operation, including the exchange of information and ideas.

Jordanian security efforts have succeeded in aborting two terror attacks planned by al Qaeda in two Gulf States. This has given Jordan a new role, and may help it obtain economic and financial support from the Gulf countries.

Another aspect of the new strategy is based on broadcasting the security successes to the public through the state-owned and private media in order to prepare public opinion for future developments, especially if Jordan is forced to tighten its security grip to face local and foreign challenges.

This week, the intelligence service declared it had detained the al-Qaeda operative responsible for the looting in Iraq, Zyad Khalf Raja Al-Karbouli. He was brought outside Iraq after strenuous efforts and a manhunt by some members of the new unit affiliated to the Armed Forces special operations corps.

Three days before this incident, Jordanian TV screened confessions of three men who were remaining in custody pending further investigation on the Hamas arms case. Some of the weapons were Iranian made. Amman says that these weapons were smuggled into Jordan via Syria, according to a plan drawn up by some Hamas members living there. Hamas and Damascus have denied these charges.

On Tuesday night, Jordanian TV broadcast a video tape of al-Karbouli, also known as 'Abu Hozayfa', who was referred to the State Security Court after being questioned by the public prosecutor. In a calm voice, Al Karbouli admitted that he committed murders, robberies and vehicle hijacking on the Jordanian-Iraqi borders. He claimed that he made the best use of his post at a customs clearance office at the Al Trabil check point on the borders. The investigations disclosed that he killed a Jordanian driver, Khaled al-Desouki, last September, kidnapped two Moroccan diplomats, Abdel Rehim Bouallam and Abdel Karim Al Mahafzi, who were killed by the al-Qaeda network last November. He also abducted the Iraqi Finance Under Secretary, who was later released, but his bullet-proof car was stolen.

The TV recording was interrupted by some footage showing al-Karbouli surrounded by masked security men, while he was getting off a Jordanian military helicopter. Another footage showed al-Desouki's family, which consists of his two wives, his sister, and five sons. They were expressing their joy over the arrest of the killer and calling on the government to execute him in the center of the Grand Hussein Mosque in Amman, so that he would be an example to others.

There are fears that Jordan may face several challenges as a result of its decision to be the most effective spearhead in facing the political and security challenges on all regional and international levels. Jordan is suffering from an internal wave of concern and a societal split over the country's policy with Iraq, the new Hamas-led government, and the rapprochement with Israel and the US.

These Jordanian moves, which those affected by it may regard as provocative, could ignite revenge on the Kingdom in the form of successive offensive operations. Or they may inflame the domestic front by the exploitation of economic hardship and tension with the Islamists.

The strength of the Arab world has collapsed, and the map of alliances has changed, especially after the fall of Iraq, the rise of Iran, and the Islamic political drive in the region. Add to that the world is competing to appease the US for fear of reprisals. A pragmatic Jordan is attempting to protect itself by all the security means at its disposal, and by diplomatic efforts, which are the best way to settle the disputes that are still in abeyance.

*Rana Sabbagh is a Jordanian writer and journalist

© 2004 Media Communications Group